AI and jobs – the threat to all of us

“…we are not prepared for the potential risks and opportunities that generative AI is poised to bring."

The co-founder and CEO of Anthropic, the company behind Claude.ai, has written a fascinating essay on machines of such profound capability that they challenge the very definition of intelligence. Dario Amodei, who knows more about the current capabilities of AI than most people, envisions a future where these digital minds surpass human intellect, operating at speeds and depth unimaginable to humans. In his essay, Machines of Loving Grace: How AI Could Transform the World for the Better, Amodei offers a glimpse into a world reshaped by AI, where technology and humanity converge with both promise and peril.

The part of the essay that, for me, has garnered little attention, suggests a profound dilemma: the transformation of work and its implications for human purpose. As AI systems become capable of tasks once thought to be exclusively human, the traditional landscape of employment faces an existential threat. This isn't the familiar story of automation displacing manual labor; it's a seismic shift that could render entire professions obsolete.

Amodei paints a stark reality. Displacement could span from factory floors to academia and medicine. Lawyers, doctors, scientists - - no field is immune. The economic repercussions are immense: mass unemployment, widening inequality, and the potential unraveling of social fabrics held together by work and wage.

Yet, beyond economic tremors lies a deeper crisis. For many, work is more than survival; it's a source of identity, purpose, and community. The good and bad of daily work, camaraderie of colleagues, the sense of contributing to something larger—these are woven into the human experience. The erosion of work threatens to sink most of us, casting society adrift in search of new meaning.

Amodei doesn't shy away from these challenges. He proposes reimagining societal values and structures. He suggests expanding the definition of work to include activities that nourish the soul and community - - art, caregiving, volunteerism. He advocates for policies like universal basic income, providing a safety net that frees individuals to pursue passions without financial ruin.

Education, in Amodei's vision, takes on paramount importance, not as a finite journey but as a lifelong pursuit. It becomes the key to adaptability and resilience, equipping individuals with the skills and knowledge to navigate the ever-shifting landscape of the AI-powered future.

Recent research from OpenAI, particularly the study GPTs are GPTs: Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs by Tyna Eloundou et al., adds important insights to Amodei's vision. The research highlights how large language models (LLMs) like GPT-4 (and o1) have the potential to significantly impact the labor market, both through automation and augmentation. It emphasizes that LLMs are increasingly capable of executing tasks across a wide range of occupations, from routine cognitive work to more complex functions traditionally performed by skilled professionals. This dual potential - - augmenting human skills while also threatening to displace them - - intensifies the urgency of Amodei's call to rethink work and purpose.

The study introduces the concept of task exposure, categorizing tasks based on the extent to which LLMs can perform them effectively. While some tasks are fully exposed to automation, others are better suited for augmentation, where AI acts as a powerful assistant. However, even in cases where augmentation is prioritized, the boundary between helping and replacing human workers is thin, driven largely by market forces and economic incentives. This blurring line means individuals must be proactive in developing skills that complement AI rather than compete with it.

The research also underscores the role of complementary innovations. Just as previous general-purpose technologies like electricity and computing required new processes and tools to realize their full potential, LLMs will necessitate the development of auxiliary software and systems. The integration of LLMs into existing workflows can amplify productivity but also demands significant reconfiguration of industries and occupations. This reinforces Amodei's point about the need for systemic change, both at an organizational level and in public policy.

In another report, researchers at Brookings Institute state:

“…we are not prepared for the potential risks and opportunities that generative AI is poised to bring. So far, the U.S. and other nations lack the urgency, mental models, worker power, policy solutions, and business practices needed for workers to benefit from AI and avoid its harms.” 

Where does this leave the individual? How does one ensure not just survival, but flourishing, in a shifting world?

The answer lies in embracing what makes us irreplaceably human. Is it left to our unique strengths becoming our greatest assets? Creativity - as in original ideas -- empathy, ethical reasoning - - these are areas where AI (currently) cannot tread without our guidance.

To thrive, we must be lifelong learners, not just accumulating knowledge, but cultivating wisdom. This means nurturing critical thinking, adaptability, and exploring intersections of disciplines where innovation sparks. It requires stepping beyond specialization and embracing holistic understanding.

We must also reforge connections with one another. Technology can isolate as easily as it connects, community is essential. Human collaboration and collective problem-solving drive progress and provide the social cohesion that fosters resilience.

Most importantly, we need to redefine success on our own terms. If traditional metrics of wealth and status become less relevant in a post-work society, we can seek fulfillment in new ways. Pursuits of art, exploration, spirituality, and relationships can offer rich meaning. I believe that universities will play a pivotal role – just as the Singapore government have initiated paid full time learning in AI for over 40’s, other governments must follow suit.

Policies must be forward-thinking, education systems reimagined, and ethical frameworks established to govern AI development. But systemic change often lags behind innovation. It is up to individuals to take hold and instigate appropriate upskilling and reskilling to face the imminent challenges with foresight and agency.

Amodei's vision, enriched by the findings of OpenAI's research, is a cautionary call to action. The “machines of loving grace” he describes hold the potential to alleviate suffering, solve global challenges (as shown by the Nobel winning work of AlphaFold), and usher in an era of abundance. Yet, they also cast long shadows of uncertainty.

The path forward is not predetermined. It is shaped by the choices we make today - - in how we design technology, prepare ourselves, and define what it means to lead a fulfilling life.

The story of technology has always been about human ingenuity. It's about our capacity to adapt, find purpose, and elevate the qualities that make us human. We still have the opportunity to not be left behind, but to be in the top 1 percent, or even 10 percent, we must learn to think critically and execute our plans flawlessly.   

dr. Colin W.P. Lewis