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Sean Murphy's avatar

I think Donald Stokes offers a much better model for four kinds of research in his "Pasteur's Quadrant." (https://www.amazon.com/Pasteurs-Quadrant-Science-Technological-Innovation/dp/0815781776) than Vannevar Bush did.

Low Theory / Low Problem Focus - Linnaeus (or Roger Tory Peterson) Quadrant of Structured Observation.

Low Theory / High Problem Focus - Edison Quadrant of Problem solving with persevering trial and error

High Theory / Low Problem Focus - Bohr's Quadrant of theoretical exploration

High Theory / High Problem Focus - Pasteur's Quadrant- advances theory in search of a solution to an important problem

It's as often the case that practice / successful invention precedes theory as theory drives invention. Steam engines were invented, refined, and put to practical use for many decades before Carnot developed a theory of thermodynamics to model their operation.

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Marginal Gains's avatar

Stopping or slowing down basic scientific research may not immediately harm a country but will lead to stagnation over the coming decades. The transformative technologies we rely on today—like semiconductors, the internet, renewable energy, and even AI itself—were born out of basic research conducted decades ago. Without sustained investment in such research, we risk losing the foundation necessary for future breakthroughs. While AI and robotics might help us "catch up" in some areas, they cannot replace the creativity, serendipity, and visionary thinking that basic research fosters. I still believe that AI will be a tool in the coming decades that can help with discovery and innovation, but it will not be able to do it independently for a while. It will also not be a substitute for long-term investment in fundamental science.

One of the biggest challenges we face today is the flawed incentive structure in research. The focus has shifted from transformative, high-risk research to publishing papers, which drives promotions, recognition, and funding. This "publish-or-perish" culture has turned research into a race for incremental improvements rather than bold, groundbreaking discoveries. Yet, the challenges we face—such as combating climate change, developing better energy storage, and creating new energy sources—demand much more than incremental advances. High-risk, high-reward research, even when it fails, pushes us forward and opens new doors. This type of research should be recognized and rewarded, as it is essential for addressing our current and future problems.

Government-funded research, the backbone of innovation in the 20th century, needs urgent reform. In his landmark report Science, The Endless Frontier, Vannevar Bush's vision laid the groundwork for the U.S. scientific dominance over the last 80 years. He understood that scientific progress relies on long-term investments and a willingness to embrace uncertainty. However, today's system has veered from that vision. Bureaucratic hurdles, short-term thinking, and risk aversion have stifled the potential for transformative breakthroughs.

We need a modern-day equivalent of Vannevar Bush—someone who can guide us through this era of unprecedented challenges and opportunities. This leadership would focus on:

a) Shifting incentives: Recognize and reward researchers who take risks and pursue transformative ideas, even if they fail.

b) Reducing bureaucracy: Allow scientists to focus on research rather than navigating red tape.

c) Encouraging interdisciplinary collaboration: Many modern challenges, like climate change and energy innovation, require expertise across multiple fields.

d) Leveraging new tools: Use AI and robotics to enhance productivity and creativity without losing sight of the human-driven nature of discovery.

e) Funding bold ideas: Create programs that explicitly support moonshot projects with uncertain outcomes but the potential for massive impact.

The future of humanity depends on our ability to innovate boldly, think long-term, and reform how we approach research. Basic research is not just an academic exercise; it is the driving force behind transformative progress. As we face existential challenges, we need to revisit and modernize the vision Vannevar Bush brought to life, aligning it with the tools and challenges of the 21st century. By doing so, we can ensure a better future for this planet and every person on it.

I will end with a quote from Benjamin Franklin: "An investment in knowledge always pays the best interest." This quote is more true than ever, given the challenges humanity faces today.

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