Progress Bet: Julian Simon and Overcoming the Limits of Imagination
Julian Simon refused to buy into the narrative of scarcity. His life's work, distilled in The Ultimate Resource, flipped the script: the problem was not people but our fear of more people, not scarcity but the limits of imagination. Humanity, he argued, was the ultimate resource.
A Relentless Mind
Julian Lincoln Simon was born in Newark in 1932, and grew up in an America still in recession worried about what it lacked. Educated at Harvard and the University of Chicago, he cut a distinguished figure, his presence marked by an air of intellectual vigor. Lean, with an athletic build that hinted at a disciplined lifestyle, he moved with a purposeful grace. His face, sometimes framed by large glasses, a balding head, and chiselled jaw, was accentuated by sharp, observant eyes that gleamed with curiosity and often the fire of an unyielding rational optimist.
When he spoke, and through his publications, he had the measured cadence of a man deeply engaged with the world of ideas, his words carefully chosen, carrying the weight of considered reflection. In conversation, Julian Simon was a force of nature, his voice resonating with the passion of his convictions, leaving an indelible mark on all who had the fortune to listen or engage with him.
Simon started his career thinking like everyone else, that overpopulation was a crisis waiting to happen. But as he dug into the numbers, a different picture emerged. What if, he asked, more people meant not less but more, more innovation, more ideas, more solutions?
Simon’s journey wasn’t without friction. He went against the grain, facing ridicule from respected peers. Critics like Paul Ehrlich argued that unchecked population growth would lead to widespread resource depletion, environmental degradation, and even mass starvation. These concerns were echoed by many in the scientific community who saw natural resources as inherently limited and humanity's growing footprint as unsustainable. Despite the criticism, Simon kept at it. He was not trying to be provocative; he was searching for the truth. The truth he found was this: people solve problems. Scarcity is not a fixed condition. When one resource runs low, humans find a substitute. Necessity breeds invention, and invention drives progress.
A Bold Bet
Simon was relentless in his pursuit of truth and solutions. His intellectual curiosity often led him to question widely accepted assumptions, and he relished immersing into data to uncover insights others missed. For example, when he initially approached the issue of overpopulation, Simon began like most of his contemporaries, assuming that it would lead to inevitable disaster. But as he dug into the numbers, a different picture emerged. What if, he asked, more people meant not less but more, more innovation, more ideas, more solutions?
His approach to problem-solving was marked by an insistence on looking beyond surface-level conclusions and challenging deeply entrenched beliefs.
Simon’s most famous moment came with a wager. In 1980, he challenged biologist Paul Ehrlich, author of The Population Bomb, to a bet on the future. Ehrlich picked five metals, convinced their prices would soar as the planet strained under its own weight. Simon bet the opposite, that human ingenuity would make them cheaper. In 1990, Simon won. Prices dropped as new methods and substitutes emerged. To Simon, the outcome was obvious: people were not the problem, they were the solution. However, the bet did not end the debate. Critics pointed out that economic growth and technological advances might not solve all environmental issues, such as biodiversity loss and climate change. These were valid concerns, but Simon maintained that human ingenuity could rise to meet these challenges.
Meticulous Research
Julian Simon was not an ivory-tower theorist. Although, he was a polymath, his ideas were practical, rooted in real-world economics. He even revolutionized the way airlines dealt with overbooking, proposing an auction system that compensated passengers willing to give up their seats, an idea that is now standard practice. In the preface to Simon’s book Ultimate Resource 2, the famed Nobel Prize winning economist Milton Friedman revealed corrspondance that he had with Julian
Milton Friedman wrote "I realize that you have tested this quite exhaustively, and I have no reason to question your results; yet I find it even harder to believe that opportunities for large increments of profit are being rejected for wholly irrational reasons."
Julian Simon to Milton Friedman, July 31, 1979:
"I'm one of your great fans, and I'm not an "I told you so" type. Still, you may find it interesting to compare your second and third paragraphs in [your letter of January 18, 1977] with American Airlines' experience as described in the enclosed letter and memo. ["We have been very pleased with the results of our voluntary approach to denied boardings."] If bureaucratic inertia is irrational, then it seems clear that the only barrier to innovation here was indeed irrational."
Milton Friedman replied: "Many thanks for your "I told you so"; you are entitled to it. . . .You deserve a great deal of credit for having pushed your idea as effectively as you have."
But his influence extended beyond airlines. Simon contributed to theories on immigration, arguing that migrants brought not only labor but also new ideas and entrepreneurial energy. He also championed market-driven solutions to environmental issues, advocating for property rights and incentives to tackle pollution rather than heavy-handed regulation.
To Simon, the market wasn’t just a mechanism for goods; it was an expression of human creativity and resilience. He believed that human effort, creativity, entrepreneurship, work, was what turned scarcity into abundance. He trusted people to think, adapt, and find their way through the toughest situations.
The Doomsayers get the funding
Just as in the days of Simon in the late 1960’s to the 1990’s, we are currently witnessing a period where the world is generating new resources and improving environmental conditions at an unprecedented pace. Our ability to provide a higher quality of life for the world’s population continues to advance. Despite this, the prevailing perspective, perhaps due to a comparable lack of imagination, leans decidedly in the opposite direction. As Simon wrote:
“Every forecast of the doomsayers has turned out flat wrong.
The doomsayers' credibility with the press, or their command over the funding resources of the federal government, has not lessened. The very persons who were entirely wrong in the 1960s and 1970s, and who should have been entirely discredited by the total failures of their forecasts, continue to have the same credibility and prominence as before.”
Society is fed bad news and doomsaying. We need to be relentless about reminding ourselves how much progress we have made, every day it seems there are breakthrough discoveries. The rational optimism that Matt Ridley writes so eloquently about in his exceptional book, echoes Simon’s belief in innovation and human ingenuity as drivers of prosperity. This should be required reading and wide discussion at every school, university and household. We need a mindset of progress and attitude of equitable earned growth, through effort and human ingenuity, we need to get off the treadmill and strive towards excellence.
Deepening the Discussion on Limits
Simon believed that limits are not inherent, they are chosen. He believed that many of the obstacles people faced were a matter of perspective, barriers that could be dismantled by innovation and the collective will to find solutions. To him, many so-called limits were simply reflections of our inability to innovate or to think differently. The limits he addressed were primarily economic, how societies manage resources, production, and growth, but they also extended into environmental and social dimensions, encompassing both the ecological concerns and the societal challenges that accompany economic development. He argued that economic growth could alleviate environmental problems by generating the wealth and technology needed to clean up pollution and conserve resources. Simon saw limits not as barriers but as challenges that spurred progress. This outlook was fundamental to his belief that human ingenuity, given the freedom to operate, could overcome almost any obstacle.
A Testament to Human Progress
One of Julian Simon’s most famous quotes is:
“The ultimate resource is people, especially skilled, spirited, and hopeful young people endowed with liberty, who will exert their wills and imaginations for their own benefit and, inevitably, they will benefit the rest of us as well.”
This encapsulates his belief in human potential as the driving force behind progress and prosperity.
Julian Simon died in 1998, but his ideas endure. In an age of climate anxiety, when and AI apocalypse looms large in the public imagination, Simon’s work remains a reminder: limits are not innate, they are chosen. Every new person is not just another mouth to feed but another mind, another set of hands, another chance at a solution.
An extraordinary thinker, far ahead of his time. He served as a powerful counterbalance to alarmist narratives, offering a more optimistic and data-driven perspective. His final work, co-authored with Stephen Moore, was published posthumously in 2002. Titled It’s Getting Better All the Time: 100 Greatest Trends of the Last 100 Years, the book highlights the remarkable progress humanity had achieved over the previous century.
Julian Simon’s legacy is not about blind optimism. It’s about seeing the potential in every problem, the opportunity in every challenge. It’s about believing, even when the evidence seems slim, that people can, and will, make things better. He left behind a simple, enduring idea: the ultimate resource is human ingenuity.
Stay curious
Dr Colin W.P. Lewis
Image of Julian Simon from Wikipedia, quote added by me.
