The Delusion of Crowds

Our inability to think critically leads to a rabbit hole of ignorance

In 1656, Thomas Ady, an English physician and humanist, published A Candle in the Dark, a courageous critique of the ongoing witch trials in England. Released during a time when such accusations and burnings were still prevalent, Ady challenged the very foundations of witchcraft accusations.

Ady argued that these accusations stemmed from the "delusion of the people" and the "foolish imagination of men's brains," suggesting that supposed acts of witchcraft were often misinterpretations of natural phenomena. His medical background allowed him to offer scientific explanations for events commonly attributed to supernatural forces. For example, he explained that seizures and convulsions, often cited as proof of bewitchment, had natural medical causes (today we might think of epilepsy). He specifically criticized notorious "witch-finders" like Matthew Hopkins and members of the clergy who had conducted infamous witch hunts.

Ady's arguments were multifaceted. He used biblical interpretation to demonstrate that contemporary witch-hunting practices lacked scriptural basis. This strategic approach allowed him to challenge the practice while maintaining his religious standing. Despite the dangerous climate for such views, he directly criticized judges and ministers who supported the trials, labeling them "blind guides" leading the public astray. The title, A Candle in the Dark, served as a powerful metaphor for reason and enlightenment combating superstition. This metaphor proved so resonant that it was later adopted by Carl Sagan for his own work on scientific thinking.

Think Critically

Published in 1995, Carl Sagan’s The Demon-Haunted World brims with intellectual fervor, an invitation to pierce through the fog of modernity and rediscover our innate curiosity and critical faculties. Sagan’s work is both an impassioned plea to the general public to engage with critical and scientific thinking, and a lament for its neglect.

It reads as a call to abandon laziness and simple ‘follow the herd menatility’. He invites us to rediscover curiousity, even to wield skepticism about what we read and watch. It is a masterpiece in encouraging us to take better control over our attention in an increasingly complex world. Sagan blends wit and rigor in his writing as he beseeches us to wake up and think!

(Read this quote very carefully and you will know its relevance today).

“I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time — when we're a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and religiously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

We might get away with it for a while, but sooner or later this combustible mixture of ignorance and power is going to blow up in our faces.”

Sagan provides many examples of how the general public are easily misinformed and fall down a rabbit hole of ignorance.

Curiosity

From its opening chapters, Sagan paints critical and scientific thinking, not as a sterile collection of facts but as a "candle in the dark," helping us fact check everyday events. He frames this as a philosophy of inquiry, disciplined yet imaginative, skeptical yet open-minded. Sagan underscores the dual nature of scientific thinking. It demands that we hold competing hypotheses in tension, embracing what works and discarding what fails. This is no passive act, it is a disciplined rebellion against the tyranny of blind faith and one we can heed as we enter a world of information about mystery drones and UFO sightings over strategic locations, something Sagan writes about throughout his humorous book.

"I have a foreboding," Sagan writes, anticipating a society where critical faculties erode, yielding to superstition and pseudoscience, as a result of ‘the uninformed cooperation (and occasionally the cynical connivance) of newspapers, magazines, book publishers, radio, television, movie producers, and the like, such ideas are easily and widely available.”

His foresight feels eerily prescient, the very technological marvels science has wrought, from mass media to instant communication, have become double-edged swords, amplifying noise over signal, spectacle over substance. Yet, critical thinking, as Sagan reminds us, remains our most potent toolkit for self-correction. It is not perfect, but it is profoundly effective

The Baloney Detection Kit

Perhaps the book’s most enduring legacy is its "baloney detection kit," a set of heuristics to navigate the flood of misinformation. For instance, when evaluating claims about a new health supplement, one could demand evidence from peer-reviewed scientific studies rather than anecdotal testimonials. Examining the logic of an argument might involve asking whether the conclusion follows from the premises without logical fallacies. Seeking alternative explanations could help uncover other factors behind a supposed effect, such as placebo or coincidence. Lastly, avoiding ad hominem attacks ensures that critiques focus on the evidence rather than the character of the claimant. These practical applications demonstrate how Sagan’s framework equips individuals to critically assess the validity of information in their daily lives.

In a world teeming with conspiracy theories and charismatic peddlers of half-truths, Sagan’s framework is an intellectual lifeboat.

In his intriguing book 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, the award winning Professor of History, Yuval Noah Harari offers us two simple rules of thumb in a section he calls “Getting out of the Brainwashing Machine”:

“First, if you want reliable information, pay good money for it. If you get your news for free, you might well be the product. Suppose a shady billionaire offered you the following deal: ‘I will pay you $30 a month, and in exchange, you will allow me to brainwash you for an hour every day, installing in your mind whichever political and commercial biases I want.’ Would you take the deal? Few sane people would. So the shady billionaire offers a slightly different deal: ‘You will allow me to brainwash you for one hour every day, and in exchange, I will not charge you anything for this service’.

The second rule of thumb:

“Make the effort to read the relevant scientific literature. And by scientific literature I mean peer-reviewed articles, books published by well-known academic publishers, and the writings of professors from reputable institutions. Science obviously has its limitations, and it has got many things wrong in the past. Nevertheless, the scientific community has been our most reliable source of knowledge for centuries. If you think that the scientific community is wrong about something, that’s certainly possible, but at least know the scientific theories you are rejecting, and provide some empirical evidence to support your claim.”

These rules of thumb are very useful against claims such as the modern resurgence of UFO sightings, flat-Earth theories or anti-vaccine sentiment. Previously, we had such cases as the infamous Piltdown Man hoax. In the early 20th century, a fossil discovery in England was hailed as the missing link in human evolution. Decades later, scientific analysis revealed it to be a deliberate fraud, involving a human skull and an orangutan's jaw. This case demonstrates how pseudoscience can mislead even the scientific community and underscores the importance of rigorous scrutiny. Another case is the Roswell Incident. In 1947, a rancher discovered strange debris in Roswell, New Mexico, sparking speculation of a crashed alien spacecraft. Subsequent investigations identified the debris as parts of a weather balloon from a classified military project. Similarly, the Hill Abduction case of 1961 saw Betty and Barney Hill report a UFO sighting during a nighttime drive. Under hypnosis, they recounted an alleged alien abduction involving medical experimentation, setting the template for countless abduction narratives. There are many more instances of alien kidnapping in the book, one about John Mack, a Harvard University psychiatrist, is especially interesting. Mack “accepts the accounts of abductees at face value” due to the “emotional power of the experiences”. Sagan writes:

“Yes, the world would be a more interesting place if there were UFOs lurking in the deep waters off Bermuda and eating ships and planes.”

These stories demonstrate how pseudoscience and sensationalism can captivate public imagination, often overshadowing rigorous scientific explanations. The warnings of Sagan and Harari, that pseudoscience thrives when genuine science fails to captivate, rings true. If real science doesn’t spark the imagination, pseudoscience will fill the void, offering emotional solace and facile answers. “Pseudoscience,” Sagan writes, "speaks to powerful emotional needs that science often leaves unfulfilled.” This diagnosis is as poignant today as it was when Sagan wrote his book.

Awe

Sagan’s perspective emerges from a keen recognition of humanity’s capacity for both brilliance and ignorance. He critiques our tendency to embrace comforting myths over challenging truths, and the importance of confronting our limitations. To grasp the complexity of DNA or the vastness of the cosmos is to confront the sublime, and to admit, humbly, how much we do not know. In Sagan’s view, science is not the enemy of wonder, it is its most faithful companion.

This down to earth perspective challenges the false dichotomy often drawn between intelligence and insight. "Being intelligent," Sagan asserts, "means knowing when to say 'I don't know.” This willingness to replace the false certainties of belief and the strongest amplified voice, with the provisional truths of personal deep inquiry, is key to intellectual growth. He believed that by embracing our ignorance and learning from failure, we evolve as individuals and as a species. It connects us to a more factual reality, not through myths but through the sheer majesty of understanding. A connection he posits is ennobling.

The Danger of Ignorance

Sagan’s admonitions are not merely theoretical, they are profoundly practical. He warns of a combustible mix, a society profoundly reliant on science and technology but largely ignorant of how they work. This ignorance is not benign. It paves the way for manipulation by elites, the rise of charlatans, and the erosion of democracy itself. "The flame flickers," he writes, "its light unsteady, while shadows creep and stir at the edges of perception." He adds that a large number of people “persist in delusion”. And asks us:

“Whose interest does ignorance serve?”

He reminds us that we put too much “power into the hands of morally feeble technologists or power-crazed politicians.” Critical thinking is recognized as dangerous by those in power, who want to maintain control.

In Russia, at the time of writing his book, Sagan notes that the “electorally most popular member of the Duma, a leading supporter of the ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky, is one Anatoly Kashpirovsky, a faith healer who remotely cures diseases ranging from hernias to AIDS by glaring at you out of your television set.” In 1989, as the USSR was crumbling, he made a series of broadcasts on Soviet television in which he attempted mass hypnosis at the behest of the government in an effort to subdue the populace.

Sagan lightens up the text with many such anecdotes, from faces on the moon and mars, Alien kidnapping, to crop circles and astrologers employed by Nancy and Ronald Reagan, and the less harmful cartoon character magician who helps you get a million dollars by using the magic words backwards “srallod noillim a em evig.”

Optimism

Yet, Sagan’s critique is matched by his optimism. He believed fervently in education as the antidote to ignorance. He championed curiosity, arguing that every child is born a scientist. The challenge lies in nurturing this innate curiosity rather than stifling it with rote learning and dogma. He imagined a society where science permeates culture, where it is not a distant priesthood but a shared endeavor.

Bamboozled

As we face the 21st century’s existential challenges Sagan’s guidance feels more urgent than ever. His call to integrate critical and scientific thinking into public discourse is not a luxury, it is a necessity. He envisioned a future where citizens wield critical thinking as a democratic tool, rejecting falsehoods and demanding accountability.

And yet, Sagan’s appeal goes beyond policy or pedagogy. It is deeply humanistic. He invites us to embrace science not merely as a method but as a way of being, to find joy in discovery, and to celebrate the sheer audacity of asking questions. It is a vision as quirky as it is profound, as accessible as it is intellectual.

There is “a great ocean of confusion and bamboozle”, which “requires vigilance, dedication, and courage."

Throughout the book, Sagan masterfully brings together scientific explanations, historical anecdotes, and introspective reflections to help us overcome the shallowness, and indeed hurt, of misinformation and intellectual complacency. His work urges us to foster a culture where critical inquiry and wonder are inseparable, where we embrace the process of exploration and the satisfaction of uncovering new knowledge. Only then we can we ‘truly leverage our future’ and create a better life.

Stay curious

Colin

Image generated by Google Gemini. Prompt a cartoon image of a Professor being kidnapped by Aliens.