“The economy is nothing more than the clever organization of technologies to
provide what we need.”
How Technology Creates Itself
In the opening pages of The Nature of Technology, W. Brian Arthur admits to a kind of intellectual haunting: as a young man trained in engineering, he could manipulate equations but could not say what technology is. Professors offered him a buffet of half-definitions, applied science, engineering practice, industrial processes, but none grasped the elusive essence of technology, the “technology-ness of technology.” Decades later, after pioneering work in economics and complexity theory, Arthur returned to the question with fresh eyes. His conclusion was radical in its simplicity: technology is self-creating, combinatorial, and evolutionary.
Arthur argues that technology is not a random accumulation of gadgets, nor merely the applied fallout of science. It is an autopoietic system: new technologies arise from combinations of old ones. The jet engine did not descend from the internal combustion engine in a Darwinian lineage; it was born from the recombination of compressors, turbines, and combustion chambers, all elements with prior technological lives. He calls this “combinatorial evolution.” Novelty emerges not from a void, but from rearrangements of existing parts around newly captured natural phenomena. Radar did not sprout from radio by mutation; it harnessed electromagnetic reflection for a fresh purpose. MRI was not the offspring of X-ray imaging but the repurposing of nuclear magnetic resonance from physics into medicine.
The same logic explains today’s Artificial Intelligence. Large Language Models are not lightning bolts of inspiration; they are recombinant entities. The transformer architecture of 2017 combines with GPU clusters, themselves the result of decades of advances in semiconductor design, and with vast data-harvesting techniques enabled by the internet. Together, these elements capture a new “phenomenon”: the statistical patterns in human language. LLMs do not understand in the human sense; they exploit this phenomenon, much as radar exploits reflection. Already we see recursion at work, AI writing code to improve AI, designing chips to train the next generation of models. Technology, as Arthur predicted, is bootstrapping itself upward.
Russian Dolls
How, for example, does a Large Language Models (ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Perplexity) trained on text, not equipped with mathematical algorithms. “Yet somehow, they can add numbers correctly "in its head". How does a system trained to predict the next word in a sequence learn to calculate, say, 36+59, without writing out each step?” Arthur states:
“Technology is no longer a machine with fixed architecture carrying out a fixed function. It is a system, a network of functionalities—a metabolism of things-executing-things—that can sense its environment and recongure its actions to execute appropriately.”
Arthur insists we must open the black box. Technologies are recursive all the way down, Russian dolls of ingenuity. A jet engine is made of turbines, turbines of blades, blades of alloys, alloys of metallurgical processes. Each layer captures a natural effect, fire, resonance, magnetism, and presses it into service. So too with AI: algorithms inside architectures, inside training routines, inside hardware. Each is itself a technology, nested within others, feeding forward into novel assemblages. Technology is recursive structure incarnate.
This dual logic, recursion and combination, makes Arthur’s thesis as consequential as Darwin’s for biology. The stock of technologies bootstraps itself: the more components we have, the more possibilities for recombination. As William Fielding Ogburn put it a century ago, “the streetcar could not have been invented in the last glacial period.” The same applies now: ChatGPT could not have been built in 1995, when the necessary computational and data-building blocks did not exist. The economy, Arthur reminds us, is not a container for technologies but their offspring. The Industrial Revolution was the blooming of steam, metallurgy, and organizational devices like the joint-stock company. Our current AI revolution is no different.
Midwives
Arthur takes aim at the myth of the lone inventor. Edison or Whittle are less gods than midwives. Technologies beget technologies; the genius lies in recognizing the recombination that others miss. In this sense, OpenAI’s breakthrough is not sui generis but the latest instance of technological parentage, the stitching together of old parts into something newly alive.
Yet Arthur is no celebrant. He is blunt about the unease that shadows technology. It creates our world but estranges us from the nature we trust. He likens this to tectonic plates grinding together: our deepest hopes rest on technology, our deepest trust on nature. The 21st century, he warns, will be defined by that collision. AI exemplifies this dissonance. We hope it will solve our problems, accelerate science, improve medicine; yet we recoil at its uncanny artificiality. We are attuned to nature’s voice, not to machines mimicking it. As with gene editing and neural prosthetics, AI moves us from using nature to intervening within it, and that transition may provoke our deepest anxieties.
The brilliance of Arthur’s book is to restore seriousness to technology. For too long, science has been the elder sibling, technology the overlooked adjunct. Arthur inverts the hierarchy: economies, societies, and even sciences are scaffolded by technological advance.
“The economy,” he writes, “is nothing more than the clever organization of technologies to provide what we need.”
To ignore technology’s inner logic is to misunderstand the genesis of modern life.
But there is a question Arthur leaves less examined. If technologies evolve through recombination and recursion, who chooses which combinations to pursue? AI exists not only because it was possible, but because billions in capital and research effort pushed it forward. Combinatorial logic explains the menu of possibilities, but human values and politics decide what is ordered. The direction of technological evolution is not neutral. It is steered.
Arthur’s closing question lingers with new urgency. As we watch AI design the next generation of AI, the issue is no longer abstract. If technology truly creates itself, what is our role? Perhaps only this: to decide, before the plates grind irreversibly, what ends we want this self-creating machinery to serve.
Arthur himself reminds us of another truth: “Technology builds itself organically from itself.” That organic growth has always been driven by human imagination as much as by technical logic. From fire to flight, from radio waves to recombinant DNA, each leap reflects not just recombination but human curiosity and will.
If technologies create themselves, they do so through us, through our stubborn ingenuity, our capacity to see in old parts something startlingly new. It is a cause not only for foreboding but for wonder. We are, as Arthur writes, “entranced by the magic of technology,” and perhaps rightly so. For even as machines evolve, so too does our inventiveness. The ghost in the machine is, in no small measure, still us.
Stay curious
Colin
“autopoietic system” - “new technologies arise from combinations of old ones.” “Technology bootstrapping itself upwards.” Fascinating article.
Another excellent post that talks about something that has fascinated me since childhood. There are a few things that always fascinated me about technology and science, and your post highlights some of those things, but here are a few more:
- The invention of the same technology or scientific breakthrough by more than one person working independently: Once we reach a certain threshold, more than one person often sees the time to combine or evolve existing knowledge to make something new. This also happens in science, which often starts by explaining something we observe in nature. An outstanding example is Newton's invention of calculus, which he used to describe the laws of gravitation and rates of change. At the same time, Leibniz developed the mathematical framework to calculate rates of change and areas under curves. Similarly, a practical working light bulb was invented simultaneously by Edison and Joseph Swan.
Why Does This Happen?
I believe there are a few reasons for this:
1. Knowledge Accumulation: When enough foundational knowledge exists, multiple individuals can independently reach the same conclusions.
2. Communication and Competition: Scientific and technological advancements often occur in parallel due to shared access to journals, conferences, and the global exchange of ideas. This has driven significant changes in the last 50 years, as information sharing has become easier and faster.
3. Technological Needs: Specific problems (e.g., better communication, energy sources) drive simultaneous innovation.
- Other things that fascinate me are people combining similar things and achieving very different outcomes. Sometimes, it is just a significant jump from the initial technology, but other times, it leads to entirely different products.
Two great examples include:
The Printing Press (1450s)
- Combination:
- Screw press (used for pressing grapes or olives).
- Movable type (adapted from earlier Chinese and Korean innovations).
- Ink and paper technologies.
- Outcome: Guttenberg's printing press revolutionized communication and knowledge dissemination, leading to the Renaissance, Reformation, and the Scientific Revolution.
- Impact: A combination of relatively simple technologies created a tool that transformed society and spread literacy.
The Smartphone
- Combination:
- Mobile phones (communication technology).
- Personal digital assistants (PDAs) for organizing tasks.
- Internet connectivity and touchscreens.
- Outcome: The smartphone became a multi-purpose device for communication, information, entertainment, and productivity.
- Impact: Changed how people interact with the world, creating industries like app development, mobile commerce, and social media.
Same technology used for a different purpose with a few modifications:
The Tractor
- Outcomes:
- Agricultural machines for plowing, planting, and harvesting.
- Construction equipment for moving heavy materials.
- Forest management for logging and clearing.
The tractor’s basic design allows it to handle heavy-duty tasks, but it has been adapted for different industries.
And another example could be
Electric Motors
- Outcome:
- Household appliances like fans, refrigerators, and washing machines.
- Industrial machinery for manufacturing and automation.
- Electric vehicles.
- Drones for filming, delivery, and surveillance.
- Same Technology: Electric motors convert electrical energy into mechanical motion, but they power products ranging from small household devices to massive industrial systems.
Why Does This Happen?
I think this can be explained by the following:
- Cross-disciplinary thinking: Innovations often arise when combining technologies or concepts from different fields.
- Problem-solving focus: People adapt existing tools to solve new or unrelated problems.
- Expanding technology base: As technology advances, more "building blocks" become available for creative recombination.
- Another thing that fascinates me is the dependence of science and technology on each other to advance: The interdependence of science and technology is one of the most fascinating dynamics in human progress. Science provides the fundamental understanding of natural phenomena, while technology translates that understanding into practical applications. In turn, technological advances often enable deeper scientific exploration. Here are a few notable examples of this mutual dependence:
The Microscope
- Science → Technology: The development of optics and an understanding of light refraction led to the invention of the microscope.
- Technology → Science: The microscope enabled the discovery of cells, microorganisms, and eventually germ theory, revolutionizing biology and medicine.
Space Exploration
- Science → Technology: Knowledge of Newton's laws of motion and gravitation enabled the development of rockets and spacecraft.
- Technology → Science: Satellites, space telescopes (e.g., Hubble), and rovers have provided new insights into the cosmos, from discovering exoplanets to studying the universe's origins.
Electricity and Electronics
- Science → Technology: The discovery of electromagnetic principles (Faraday, Maxwell) led to the development of electric generators, transformers, and motors.
- Technology → Science: Electronics, such as oscilloscopes and particle accelerators, helped scientists study atomic and subatomic particles, leading to breakthroughs in quantum physics.
The Discovery of DNA
- Science → Technology: Knowledge of molecular biology and chemistry guided the search for the structure of DNA.
- Technology → Science: X-ray crystallography, an advanced technology at the time, provided the data that Rosalind Franklin, Watson, and Crick used to uncover the double-helix structure of DNA.
- Impact: Enabled genetic engineering, CRISPR, and modern biotechnology.
Why This Interdependence Happens: Again, I can think of a few reasons:
1. Science Provides Knowledge:
- Science uncovers the principles of how the world works, providing the foundation for technological innovation.
- Example: Understanding electromagnetism led to the invention of radios and computers.
2. Technology Provides Tools:
- Tools created through technology allow scientists to explore deeper, faster, and more precisely.
- Example: Telescopes enabled discoveries in astronomy; particle accelerators advanced physics.
3. Feedback Loop:
- Each advancement in one field creates opportunities for the other to grow, forming a continuous feedback loop that accelerates progress.
- The Future Role of Humans in Innovation with AI (AGI/ASI):
I am also considering about our role in advancing technology and science once AI reaches a level of AGI or ASI.
- Would we still need to do any cross-disciplinary thinking to invent new things, or would it simply involve providing AI with a need, and AI would find the solution, even if it required advancements in science and technology to achieve it?
- Would AI build a solution as effective or better than humans?
- Would AI see that the same parts can combine to build something new or improve existing technologies, like humans do, or would it wait for humans to define a new need?
- Would it actively invent new things or only respond to needs?
- Would competition between nations and people still play a role?
- Will humans shift from being inventors to curators of innovation?
- Can AI truly replicate human creativity's emotional, cultural, and philosophical dimensions?
And many more similar questions.
“Innovation is taking two things that already exist and putting them together in a new way.” — Tom Freston