“We are trained to have views, to express them fluently, to defend them with cleverness and conviction.” I think this sums up most of the world. We operate on the god of opinion or the god of society and when we come into power, in small or large ways, we are then in danger of lording it over others.
Excellent, well picked up Gavin - and yes.. this leads to omnipotent thinking by the few. We really do need a new way of thinking about the world and how we hone our thoughts/beliefs. I genuinely believe that Tetlock's suggestions are a solid approach.
It is staggering to me how some people will stick to their opinions even when they know they are wrong. We see this with cult leaders who predict the end of the world then come up with a new date and why it didn’t occur when everyone is still breathing. There is nothing wrong with being wrong except the failure to admit it and learn from it.
We seek safety in our convictions even in the face of devastating consequences and history STILL repeats, like Sodom and Gomorrah repeating
itself endlessly throughout eternity. You may recognize the polar bear exercise in this article below. I didn't know where it originated until reading your previous essay.
Interesting that forecasting can be much improved by a logical technique, especially in an unpredictable and volatile world of 'discreet' events. Having had deeply-held world-views shattered twice over the years - requiring a complete rethink from scratch - I remain open to new ideas, with caution (healthy doubt) as my byword, since risk is an inevitable part of life. Total surety (or security) is when you're dead.
For me, forecasting, solving, and even understanding the problem is all about building a better model, whether that is in your head or on paper or on a spreadsheet. This is just another way to say everything you said in your article. The best model answers how things are done, not just what is done or why.
In a general sense, I believe that the best model of human systems consists of four parts; people, process, tools, and rules. Most people build and model the structure, how the people are organized. That's why solutions in business usually focus on reorganization. However, it is the process that determines the results. Therefore, it always pays to model the process, to figure out how things are created or changed. Therefore, the best solutions consist of process optimization. Tools are just automation of the process once the ideal process is designed. And rules are constraints that limit it.
There are different methodologies for solving problems. Process problems are best understood by finding the root cause of the problem or by mapping the process and looking for inputs that drive the outputs. These are leading indicators that can be used to forecast results like you described in your article. What is it that affects the process that is causing all the other symptoms? Once the root cause or primary driver is known, the solution or result is usually apparent. Sometimes there are multiple drivers or causes. In that case, the most important ones can be determined using a Pareto chart.
If we focused on fixing processes instead of the organization structure, we would stop blaming people and start fixing things, understanding things, and making better forecasts.
That's a key distinction and a crucial point about the importance of modeling in forecasting and problem-solving. I completely agree that building a robust model, whether mental or tangible, is fundamental to understanding and predicting outcomes.
For me model building is an iterative, ongoing process of discovery and refinement, not a quest for absolute certainty. This aligns perfectly with the superforecasting mindset, where uncertainty is not a weakness to be avoided, but an intrinsic part of the process.
Your framework of 'people, process, tools, and rules' provides a very useful structure for analyzing human systems. It's particularly powerful to emphasize the 'process' as the driver of results, as you do. As you pointed out, many organizations focus on structural changes, often overlooking the critical role of process optimization - true indeed, although I know one CEO at a major bank who is process obsessed - always thinking how to optimize proceses, yet he is a rare breed at that level.
Your point about root cause analysis and leading indicators directly aligns with the superforecasting principles I discussed. Identifying the key drivers and understanding the 'how' behind the 'what' and 'why' is essential for accurate forecasting. This approach, as you rightly suggest, shifts the focus from blaming individuals to systematically improving the underlying processes.
Great point that 'bugs are features', that violations of expectations are opportunities for refinement. This highlights the iterative nature of improving our understanding and forecasts, which again is a key aspect of the superforecasting model.
Love this post Colin. One of my favorite passages in Xenophon’s Education of Cyrus is on the topic of phronesis, or predictive wisdom, accurately picturing how things will go. Cyrus learns from his father that having a reputation for phronesis is the key to having enthusiastic followers and he cites the examples of how eagerly we will follow a doctor, a guide, and a sea captain if we believe they have phronesis. When Cyrus asks how you get a reputation for phronesis, his father explains that you must do the hard work to cultivate it. There’s no way to fake such a reputation. Alas, his father had never heard of mass media.
That is a wonderful passage from Xenophon's Education of Cyrus. I absolutely love that connection! Phronesis, or predictive wisdom, is such a powerful concept, and it's remarkable how relevant it remains today.
It is an excellent connection, cultivating phronesis through hard work. which perfectly captures the core message of that superforecasting isn't a magical gift, but a skill developed through deliberate practice and intellectual rigor. Incredible wisdom!
Even in a complex and uncertain world, it's possible to improve our ability to 'accurately picture how things will go.' Thank you so much Norman, you enhanced my thinking, I really like how you connected the examples of the doctor, guide, and sea captain (we do eagerly follow to fast). This illustrates how crucial trust in predictive wisdom is for effective leadership and collaboration. And your wry observation about mass media is perfect! Especially with information overload and manufactured narratives, the ability to discern genuine phronesis from mere performance is more critical than ever.
Thanks again for the great reminder and connection.
Thanks for sharing this Colin. I've visited the Good Judgement website and completed their on-line course. Some great takeaways that I can apply immediately to my own thinking and writing!
“We are trained to have views, to express them fluently, to defend them with cleverness and conviction.” I think this sums up most of the world. We operate on the god of opinion or the god of society and when we come into power, in small or large ways, we are then in danger of lording it over others.
Excellent, well picked up Gavin - and yes.. this leads to omnipotent thinking by the few. We really do need a new way of thinking about the world and how we hone our thoughts/beliefs. I genuinely believe that Tetlock's suggestions are a solid approach.
It is staggering to me how some people will stick to their opinions even when they know they are wrong. We see this with cult leaders who predict the end of the world then come up with a new date and why it didn’t occur when everyone is still breathing. There is nothing wrong with being wrong except the failure to admit it and learn from it.
The appeasers in the 1930's had that in spades. Many did not admit they were wrong even when war was declared.
This would be a great post - "There is nothing wrong with being wrong except the failure to admit it and learn from it."
We seek safety in our convictions even in the face of devastating consequences and history STILL repeats, like Sodom and Gomorrah repeating
itself endlessly throughout eternity. You may recognize the polar bear exercise in this article below. I didn't know where it originated until reading your previous essay.
https://gavinchalcraft.substack.com/p/the-god-of-opinion?r=s3qz0
Interesting that forecasting can be much improved by a logical technique, especially in an unpredictable and volatile world of 'discreet' events. Having had deeply-held world-views shattered twice over the years - requiring a complete rethink from scratch - I remain open to new ideas, with caution (healthy doubt) as my byword, since risk is an inevitable part of life. Total surety (or security) is when you're dead.
For me, forecasting, solving, and even understanding the problem is all about building a better model, whether that is in your head or on paper or on a spreadsheet. This is just another way to say everything you said in your article. The best model answers how things are done, not just what is done or why.
In a general sense, I believe that the best model of human systems consists of four parts; people, process, tools, and rules. Most people build and model the structure, how the people are organized. That's why solutions in business usually focus on reorganization. However, it is the process that determines the results. Therefore, it always pays to model the process, to figure out how things are created or changed. Therefore, the best solutions consist of process optimization. Tools are just automation of the process once the ideal process is designed. And rules are constraints that limit it.
There are different methodologies for solving problems. Process problems are best understood by finding the root cause of the problem or by mapping the process and looking for inputs that drive the outputs. These are leading indicators that can be used to forecast results like you described in your article. What is it that affects the process that is causing all the other symptoms? Once the root cause or primary driver is known, the solution or result is usually apparent. Sometimes there are multiple drivers or causes. In that case, the most important ones can be determined using a Pareto chart.
If we focused on fixing processes instead of the organization structure, we would stop blaming people and start fixing things, understanding things, and making better forecasts.
That's a key distinction and a crucial point about the importance of modeling in forecasting and problem-solving. I completely agree that building a robust model, whether mental or tangible, is fundamental to understanding and predicting outcomes.
For me model building is an iterative, ongoing process of discovery and refinement, not a quest for absolute certainty. This aligns perfectly with the superforecasting mindset, where uncertainty is not a weakness to be avoided, but an intrinsic part of the process.
Your framework of 'people, process, tools, and rules' provides a very useful structure for analyzing human systems. It's particularly powerful to emphasize the 'process' as the driver of results, as you do. As you pointed out, many organizations focus on structural changes, often overlooking the critical role of process optimization - true indeed, although I know one CEO at a major bank who is process obsessed - always thinking how to optimize proceses, yet he is a rare breed at that level.
Your point about root cause analysis and leading indicators directly aligns with the superforecasting principles I discussed. Identifying the key drivers and understanding the 'how' behind the 'what' and 'why' is essential for accurate forecasting. This approach, as you rightly suggest, shifts the focus from blaming individuals to systematically improving the underlying processes.
Great point that 'bugs are features', that violations of expectations are opportunities for refinement. This highlights the iterative nature of improving our understanding and forecasts, which again is a key aspect of the superforecasting model.
Blame seems to be systemic unfortunately.
Love this post Colin. One of my favorite passages in Xenophon’s Education of Cyrus is on the topic of phronesis, or predictive wisdom, accurately picturing how things will go. Cyrus learns from his father that having a reputation for phronesis is the key to having enthusiastic followers and he cites the examples of how eagerly we will follow a doctor, a guide, and a sea captain if we believe they have phronesis. When Cyrus asks how you get a reputation for phronesis, his father explains that you must do the hard work to cultivate it. There’s no way to fake such a reputation. Alas, his father had never heard of mass media.
That is a wonderful passage from Xenophon's Education of Cyrus. I absolutely love that connection! Phronesis, or predictive wisdom, is such a powerful concept, and it's remarkable how relevant it remains today.
It is an excellent connection, cultivating phronesis through hard work. which perfectly captures the core message of that superforecasting isn't a magical gift, but a skill developed through deliberate practice and intellectual rigor. Incredible wisdom!
Even in a complex and uncertain world, it's possible to improve our ability to 'accurately picture how things will go.' Thank you so much Norman, you enhanced my thinking, I really like how you connected the examples of the doctor, guide, and sea captain (we do eagerly follow to fast). This illustrates how crucial trust in predictive wisdom is for effective leadership and collaboration. And your wry observation about mass media is perfect! Especially with information overload and manufactured narratives, the ability to discern genuine phronesis from mere performance is more critical than ever.
Thanks again for the great reminder and connection.
Thanks for sharing this Colin. I've visited the Good Judgement website and completed their on-line course. Some great takeaways that I can apply immediately to my own thinking and writing!